Did the Big Real Estate Groundhog see his shadow? Yes! Er...No... Wait.

A recent newspaper headline in Phoenix quoted several economists including Elliot D. Pollack & Co “The Source for Information on the Arizona Economy and Real Estate Market” that “The worst is yet to come for the Greater Phoenix housing market“.  The article forecast another 5 years before our market returns to any semblance of normal.

A year earlier in December 2006, the Pollack Report stated “The panelists at this point believes that the worst will be over after 2007.”  Oops.  Oh well, predictions were made to be adjusted. 

Another article in Realtor Magazine this month was more favorable with the following “Over the next few months, existing-home sales are expected to hold fairly steady as indicated by pending sales activity, and then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009, according to the National Association of Realtors.”  Ah, yes, I like this one better.  A ray of light at the end of a very long tunnel.  Of course, many will say this is a rosy picture created by a group of Realtors to help encourage a lagging market. 

The truth is, I don’t remember anyone predicting our sellers market 4 years ago and I don’t remember anyone predicting our crash and burn 2 years ago. 

I actually think the prediction for another 5 years of bad market (is this the world’s biggest groundhog or what?) is a positive in disguise.  I think buyers who are sitting on the fence are going to say “I’m tired of waiting for prices to hit bottom. I’m not going to wait 5 years.  It’s time to get on with my life and buy a house now.”

Yep, that the way I’m going to see this picture.  Realtor or not, I see a great big, pretty and very rosy real estate market future. Positive visualization!  Yep.  It’s all good and everyone lived happily ever after.

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