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Like the rest of the Manhattan real estate world, this column devoted significant coverage over the past couple of years to developments at the 15 Central Park West and the Plaza.  The two properties were full of promise and had been selling units at a brisk pace. 
 
It was more than just the media nexus of the New York apartment market and human beings' inherent fascination with the lifestyles of the rich and famous.  In fact, it was hard not to write about the apartments.  Sales from the two much sought-after buildings actually pushed the average value of New York condos up significantly. 
 
After all, many of the sales at the two buildings took place in the last quarter of 2008.  So, when many an interested reader turned to the end of the year…

Most of the talk in New York real estate circles these days has centered on the national recession, the pain it has caused the NYC apartment market, and when it's all going to end.  The recent Deutche Bank report has fueled the debate, as have recent prognostications of a global recovery – most of latter having stemmed from perpetually overly-optimistic business writers. 

While the perennial debate between optimists and pessimists plays itself out in the context of shrinking real estate valuations, the form that the eventual recovery will take is becoming clear.  The eventual construction resulting from the wretched attacks of September 11th with aid a revitalized downtown New York real estate market.  Manhattan is typically the strongest part of the…

The real estate market, in comparison to most markets, moves at a glacial pace. Housing and property are, after all, two of the most illiquid assets you can buy. That illiquidity makes sense: you can never move it; for most lots it’s hard to sell just part of it and keep the rest; holding it costs money; selling it costs money.

What keeps real estate looking so attractive to so many investors, however, are the potentially huge returns. All in all, though, the transaction costs are huge in any real estate market, and that keeps the market from responding as quickly as, say, stock or bond markets.

The glacial pace at which the national market moves is reflected in the Manhattan real estate market. In fact, mainly because the New York market dodged…

The economy is currently in free fall. Try as they might, optomistic commentators can no longer pin the bad news on market psychology. Just today, Harvard Professor Robert Barro was on CNBC and writing in the Wall Street Journal of a study he recently completed. It estimates a 20-30% chance of the recession becoming a depression.

A little while ago, the world’s two most famous traders, Warren Buffet and George Soros predicted diametrically opposed economic fates. Buffet said the bottom had been reached, Soros said it hadn’t. Today, Soros is wealthier than ever before and Buffet’s investment firm is currently under seige from the traders on Wall Street.

Citigroup is almost a pennystock.

If you are yearning for good news: In terms of the free fall itself,…

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Manhattan Real Estate prices are down and are likely to fall even further, in turn creating an increase of inventory. We are also experiencing historically low interest rates and with the government’s new stimulus plan including an initiative for first-time home buyers, now is the most opportune time for buyers we have seen in the last decade.

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Mortgage Rates – Perhaps the most important variable, mortgage rates have dropped dramatically from their highs several months back. With still-President Bush requesting the second half of the TARP funds, credit markets should continue to thaw over the rest of the year. Average rates for thirty year mortgages in Manhattan apartments are currently below six percent – 5.875%, to be exact.

Furthermore, interest rates are likely to get lower for at least the first half of the year. Everyone knows the fed is going to be keeping the interest rate effectively at zero percent for the foreseeable future. That means that for both the long and short term, interest rates are going to be as low as buyers can reasonably expect.

The Selection – While high…

Prices are declining throughout New York City, but certain neighborhoods are being hit harder than others.
It is usually the case that changing and marginal neighborhoods are hit hardest by slowdowns.  Despite this entire recession being caused by those on Wall Street, this time is no different from most.

Harlem is already feeling the pinch more than any other part of the New York City real estate market, save for Morningside Heights, which dropped 30%.  Residential property values in Harlem and East Harlem combined are down a full 20% from last year’s numbers.

Midtown East and Turtle Bay were runners up.  Values there dropped an average of 18.6%.  Hell’s Kitchen last quarter lost 8% of its real estate value from last year.

Median co-op…

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