Fort Meade Maryland BRAC update

OK, so the new totals and time line for Fort Meade BRAC are in at about 6,000 jobs here at Fort Meade by 2011.  Way down from the original estimates of over 20,000 - 30,000 that were bantered around in the beginning and were slated to start arriving in 2008.  After the March 16th awarding of the construction contract to build the new  1 million s.f.  Fort Meade facility for DISA, they had the ground breaking ceremony on April 16th.  Estimates show DISA being the biggest contributor of jobs with about 4,300 new positions expected.  Other organizations as well as DOD and civilian support teams are expected to bring that total up but it's anyones guess at this point.

I have heard so many Anne Arundel County real estate owners state that they are going to wait for BRAC to increase the value of their homes.  The most common expectation is that this will happen in one year.  Some owners deferred selling their home in 2005 in hopes that BRAC would soon be here and the real estate market would turn around in the Fort Meade area.  Three years later these homes are worth dramatically less.  Like $50,000 less.  So now we have to rent that home at or below the mortgage payment.  And still no BRAC in sight.

With our current inventory it would take 10 BRAC's to turn things around.  

Let's say there are 10,000 new jobs coming here between 2009 and 2011.

Let's say 30% of those or 3,000 people  are coming here on a three year assignment.  They will likely want to rent a home for that amount of time as our housing costs are sky high!

And we'll assume that 25% of the jobs will be filled by people that already live here in the Fort Meade area and want to shorten their commute by working on post.  Certainly some of those jobs have to go to the local economy?

And then let's estimate that 25% of the homebuyers will seek locations 30 minutes or more North of Fort Meade where housing is more affordable.

Reasonable assumptions?  If so, that leaves us 2,000 possible home buyers for whom a longer commute is just not an option.  These people will be looking for homes in Anne Arundel, Prince Georges and Howard Counties.

While 2,000 home owners will most definitely give our market a shot in the arm, when you stretch it over 3 years and 3 counties that's just 666 new home buyers for each county or 222 per year for each county.

Now let's put in to perspective the sales decline from 2005 - 2007

In 2005 in the counties of Anne Arundel, Prince George's and Howard there were 29,233 home sales.  Real estate reached it's most recent 'peak' in October 2005 and has been on a steady decline since.

In 2007 in the counties of Anne Arundel, Prince George's and Howard there were 17,537 home sales in these same areas.

So we're down about  11,696 sales from our peak in 2005.  

Even IF every BRAC job meant a new home buyer, it would not bring us back to the frenzy of 2005.  We're down 12,000 sales over 2005! 

And, those home owners who have chosen to 'wait until values increase'  are now seeing foreclosure signs on their neighbors homes because they couldn't sell.  One foreclosure sale or short sale in your neighborhood is an anomaly, two is a trend, and three is the new market value that takes your house down with it!  How many foreclosed homes are there in your neighborhood?   Are you willing to bet your equity that the right move is to wait for BRAC?

And don't even get me started about the people who are waiting it out by renting their homes.  That means that when Fort Meade BRAC does rear it's head we are going to have a flood of homes dumped on the market at one time to grab those buyers.  More available homes means lower prices.  It's supply and demand.

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