Ft. Myers (RAGFMB) Multiple Image Feed

The total value of real estate in NZ has more than doubled in past 6 years (Statistics NZ). This has lead to a huge consumer borrowing and spending binge, resulting in lowest unemployment in a decade and huge current and trade deficits. The debt service ratio and household debt is at records highs, savings are at their lowest levels. The Reserve Bank has warned about the trend of easy liquidity through overseas flows being unsustainable and has increased interest rates to moderate the housing price rise. The higher interest unfortunately attract more funds from overseas chasing higher yields resulting in a stronger dollar and continued increase in consumption. The going is good so far, but NZ needs to take a clue from countries that are depending on asset inflation (appreciation) and consumption for growth rather than productivity improvements and investments. The higher dollar and lowest productivity on record does not paint a healthy picture and it is only a question of time when the housing market stabilizes and then crashes (the population per sq km in NZ is among the lowest), there is plenty of land to expand. Any external/internal event can cause the foreigners to pull their money out of NZ, that will result in a crash in the kiwi and probably a recession. It is important for the Reserve Bank to come out with some other measures to get the macro structure in place before it is too late, once the party is over, someone has to pick the bill.

A little off topic, but of interest, Sunil. We definitely feel the sting of dependence on consumption in North America. I believe that savvy investing in a diversified portfolio including real estate is the key to independence from consumption. Your money is in a vehicle whereby its transfer (read: spending) is quite detrimental. You look at countries like Holland that do not have a highly industrialized economic framework, but a very high and stable standard of living, and you can see the impact of a populace with good investment skills. The problem in North America, and might be the same in NZ, is the lack of a culture of good investing. We might have some of the best curlers and hockey players in the world, but I would rather we had some of the best investors in the world.