Atlanta Real Estate Market Consistently Down 1/3 Year-to-Date - Does that Make the Glass Half Full or Empty?

For several months now, the FMLS has reported roughly 33% declines in the total number of home sales compared with the same time one year earlier. Condos have consistently performed even worse at something around 40% of a decline in sales volume, but, I'd like to take a look at this from a different perspective. We are so used to seeing the glass half full or half empty that we sometimes read market conditions through a colored lens that doesn't allow us to make honest and objective assessments of where we are and where we are going.

I'm aware that past is often prologue and we must look back to see where things may be going, but, not at the expense of what is happening at the present time. Atlanta real estate, like real estate in most other places right now, has fallen far from the highs of just a few short years ago and current events are changing the market in many ways. Economic uncertainty and the constriction of loan availability with the demise of sub prime have removed about 1/3 of the potential buyers from the market.

But, I think there is more to it and there are things happening now that should help the medium to long term outlook improve over where we are right now. Supply is too high, but is leveling or dropping in most places - this is essential and one of the main reasons is due to the fact that new home starts are down. You can't reach the bottom with increasing supply. Oil prices are 50% of what they were just a few months ago and whoever becomes president, there will be a perceived change.

Rather than half full or half empty, I prefer to look at this in a more pragmatic way because the reality is that whether I'm optimistic or pessimistic doesn't actually change the market. Since I know you wanted to know anyway, I believe the glass is half full, but, not because I want it to be. Instead, I believe because of the facts on the ground that we are closer rather than farther from the bottom.

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