Can someone please give me honest answer.

[beatyourprice]

What you guy's think of future or california real estate, is it more down turn. Is it good to sell now , what I hear we might lose another 10 to 15 percent of house value in couple months..
Thank's

[BuyHawkeye]

The honest answer? It is nothing but speculation, one way or the other. There are honest arguments on both sides. If you are uncertain as to the future and are contemplating selling, consider this statement:

"I am satisfied that I have equity in my home in today's market and can walk away with a profit, holding fewer regrets that my home may appreciate even further in the future than if I were to lose money by not selling now."

Maybe not the best wording, but philosopher I am not. Realize that you could lose money in a down market and make money in an up market. At what point have you made enough that you are not concerned which way the market goes?

[TrojanDLA]

As an active Realtor in California and pretty in tune with LA/OC real estate specifically, the following is my opinion:

1. The "nice" neighborhoods along the coast (Newport, HB, Santa Monica, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, PV, etc.) will have a soft landing, and if you look at the listings now, you will notice that there's not much of a "decline", as a matter of fact, the price is holding steady in some areas. The buyers are normally qualified and have no issue with income and cash flow, however, they are affected by the jumbo interest rates to some extent, but even then, they have the resources to pretty much buy what they want now.

2. The "middle class" neighborhoods and the "lower" neighborhoods will continue to suffer greatly, because most of the REOs and foreclosures will be in these zip codes. Also, buyers in these zip codes have relied primarily on stated income loans, subprime and Alt-A, so those buyers have all but disappeared leaving behind a vacuum for the sellers to target. Guess where 99% of the foreclosures will be in the next 12 months? Yep, these very areas.

3. Despite all signals of decline, the "smart money" is nevertheless assuming (maybe incorrectly) that a turn-around is in the works by 2010-2011. So they are actually preparing to make money in the next upward cycle. Smart money is assuming that global inflation, global economy will continue to grow, which means international investors will continue to pump money into the U.S. real estate market at some point in the future (4 years from now).

Of course nobody can predict the future, but one thing is for certain - as wages rise and housing prices decline, at some point affordability will hit a sweet spot and SoCal will once again experience a boom (this takes into consideration relative interest rates).

[Mack Perry]

If I had a crystal ball that would answer your question, I would have retired by now by answering some wall street questions for myself.

[Northern_IL]

San Fransisco reporting the biggest housing slump in 15 years.

Story on Bloomberg

[BuyHawkeye]

From an historical perspective, I would throw this in. I had an opportunity in the early 90's to buy properties in CA. The market was unstable and 4 out of 5 people weren't qualifying for loans. I felt the prices were ridiculously high and stayed away, certain of a crash. Instead, the market leveled off for a few years and then proceeded on to its next boom.

I have a lot of faith in real estate, long term. It's the short term that I can't seem to get right. But then again, I appear to be in pretty good company...

[ericbadgley]

I am not sure what the market is going to do. I am selling just in case

[Morristown]

I have no clue what the California Market will do going forward. I do know that the California market has been scaring home buyers in New Jersey for no real good reason. The markets here have been doing better since about May though so we are all feeling a little better.

Some of the Realtors around here wish that California would just fall off into the ocean though.

[Mack Perry]

Several years ago all we heard how wonderful the market was in California. Now we hear how bad it is. Come on California, settle down and join the real world.

[MikeDammann]

now costa rica is what Cali was years ago