What Real Estate Bubble?

[AlexShay.com]

I dont think there has really been a real estate bubble, at least not in Miami. Granted, the number of homes on Miami Beach that are on the market for sale, have increased dramatically in the past few months, but prices have yet to come down. One home on a 10,500 sq. ft lot, recently built, closed for $7 million. This is in an area where waterfront luxury properties often sell for half that price. I do have to say that the market has opened up and that there are some amazing homes on the market these days, as you can plainly see if you go to http://www.alexshay.com

[Irene M Ward]

I dont think there has really been a real estate bubble, at least not in Miami.

Hey, did you see Donald Trump yesterday morning on Fox News referring to the hotter markets not being nearly as affected as some others? It's probably not likely that the higher-end, hotter markets will see the same type of immediate kick in the butt that the more modestly priced homes will in areas that weren't in as much demand to begin with. The market in the DC Metro area has mirrored NYC, FL, LA, etc but the suburbs certainly have felt the pinch with the slight increase in interest rates.

I was shopping with million dollar buyers last spring and we saw a fairly modest inventory. By late summer, after Katrina and the gas hikes, there were about 10 times as many homes! And they're sitting for over 6 months! Granted, folks selling in that price range bought from the builder 3 years ago for almost half that price, but they are having to drop the price considerably to get it to move. That's now trickled down all the way to the $300K price range. The inventory has gotten ridiculously high out here and unless the spring selling season proves to bring in buyers from out of the woodwork, I see the bubble slowly leaking, but not popping...yet!

I personally bought an investment property late in the first quarter of 2005 and I'm getting ready to sell over 12 months later with only a 10% appreciation. That's significantly more than you normally get in the stock market but it's much lower than our previous rates of appreciation between 2001 and 2004. Those numbers were steady at 25% or more! What are you all seeing?

[CafeMonkey]

I saw a serious slowdown in the winter... I was really concerned that I wasn't going to be able to sell my properties...

But last week the sun came out, and I got five properties under contract. I'm thrilled!

So if anecdotal evidence means anything to you, then it's springtime!

[Irene M Ward]

But last week the sun came out, and I got five properties under contract. I'm thrilled!

I just hope it gets "sunnier" in Virginia! I know intellectually it's still early but we've been spoiled by the market being so robust in the last 4 or 5 years that some of us may be too quick to FREAK OUT! Myself included

[GeorgeW]

In the area out here (near Vancouver BC) we are running into the problem where renting is now less expensive than owning. All real estate deals I have seen have a negative ROI for renting purposes, although in my area, my house experienced a 36% capital gain.

However, I am a little diffent from most investors - I am not after capital gains (as they are taxed more severley) if I can't get a constant 15% ROI from rental property, I don't buy. I have not seen one of these properties in the last 2 years. This, to me is a warning sign of an eventual downturn - however, as my buying criteria mandates, I can't wait for the downturn.

Another slight aside, the Chicago Merchantile Exchange will be offering link removed by webmaster sometime this month. (I linked to that because I wrote it).

But then, take what I say with a grain of salt, I am a Systems Administrator, not a Realtor. I just make the websites here work!

[GeorgeW]

Good CNN article on the topic as well:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/04/26/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

[GeorgeW]

CNN thinks it is a "Dead Zone"

http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/03/news...tune/index.htm

Good read too.