John Mauldin writes pretty terrific articles on economic matters. I've been reading his free, opt-in newsletters for years and found the articles to be fairly prophetic.

Here's an excerpt from his latest

Since the recession ended in 2001, Real Estate has been crucial in enabling enormous consumer spending, and helping to create many new jobs. These two factors have been the primary drivers of the post-crash economy. With this economic expansion now entering its 4th year, the cooling real estate market is increasingly presenting new risks. With the peak of the boom long since past, the current inventory build up, sales slow down, and price decreases are starting to take their toll on economic activity. Given how extraordinary the boom was, we may not be in for a run-of-the-mill downturn.

The full article will probably require registration. IMO, it's worth the hassle.

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/art...p?id=mwo122906

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Interesting article! He assumes that the housing market will continue a decline. A lot of people don't think that is going to happen. Many think that we have bottomed out and are on our way up again. I agree with this group. I think we have a good economy, low mortgage rates, demand, and good deals. I think 2007 is going to be a good Real Estate market!

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Wayne Long
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Our local market over here on the east coast (Eastern Virginia, VA Beach) has seen its fair share of listings hit the market in the past 6 months to a year. In fact, not only has our inventory risen, but the homes that have been on the market for the past six months have been "recently reducing" and still no traffic or movement. Although, our daily listings that receive a contract are not too far behind the new listings bulk that enters the market...give or take 20-40 homes in the difference.

I remember telling one of my sellers that the market is famous for picking up a bit after the holiday season in December and much to my surprise, we received four showings on his 395,000 condo starting the day after Christmas until yesterday. Let's hope Mr. Ben doesn't want to disturb the market anymore than it already has been with those interest rate hikes throughout mid 2006 again this year. And even though new construction has basically stopped in throughout the USA, our market both Norfolk and Virginia Beach is presenting many new developments. In fact, sky scrapers would be the better way to emphasize this. Both the Granby Tower in Norfolk and The Westin in Virginia Beach have been producing steady sales and "only a few units remain."

With low rates, recently reduced properties, and the holiday season coming to it's end, let's all hope some buyers find their way through the lending trenches to our closing tables in 2007!

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I used to read Mauldin's newsletter years ago. Changed email addresses at some point an neglected to get his newsletter sent to my new email.

Anyway, I have to agree. When you get that big of a run up, in any market, you tend to get big declines after. Such is the nature of markets.

You agents out there, be carefull, don't let your positive affirmation salesman techniques blind you too much. Don't over leverage yourself on your own real estate investments. And be prepared to make some concessions in order to make a deal happen. You may need to convince your client to take that low offer, and/or be prepared to drop your commission by 1% to make it happen.

It is entirely possible that the recent pull back in real estate is but a blip as it continues to surge forward for one last push to a top. But I don't think its likely. The real estate bubble is showing signs of deflation in many aspects. And internationally.

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